2025 First Quarter Update
The AlphaGeo investment thesis provides market participants with an alternative way to deploy capital behind the themes that continue to drive global economic activity. In 2024, we demonstrated that a portfolio can be constructed using a sustainable, value-accretive framework through our hypothetical Industrial Renaissance Tracker (IRT). As highlighted in previous communications, the IRT was designed to give investors targeted exposure to publicly listed equities positioned to benefit from the ongoing “Industrial Renaissance” — a structural shift that continues to shape capital and material flows across the industrial landscape.
Despite recent market disruption and uncertainty, it is important to note that we still do not see signs of our thesis changing. In fact, we see the opposite. The long duration signals are still strong, and the market tailwinds that we have identified continue to drive capital allocation decisions.
Please refer to the historical monthly Market Intelligence notes located on the AlphaGeo Investment Solutions page for more information on past performance, including timestamped historical summaries.
IRT Performance
While the public markets have seen significant shifts in 2025, we maintain our conviction that ongoing volatility and pullbacks continue to create attractive entry points for investors. Daily and weekly market gyrations resulting from everything including tariff announcements to geopolitical posturing to currency devaluations seem to steer the capital deployment decisions in a different direction every trading session. Uncertainty notwithstanding, our ‘patient capital’ approach remains constructive and constant.
The chart below highlights the updated 10-year performance for our beta equal weighted IRT portfolio product, benchmarked against the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) and the State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) through 31 March 2025. The behavior of the IRT portfolio moves with the broader indices, but a smaller concentration of names that have been selected through our geoeconomic exposure approach clearly highlights the opportunity for outperformance.
In an actively managed environment, we recommend investors consider shifting to one of our alternative weighting schemes [described here]. Beginning in 2025, we are transitioning from a purely passive approach to a more active strategy — maintaining a core set of holdings while rebalancing the remainder of the portfolio on a monthly basis. This transition is already underway, marked by the addition of NVDA to the portfolio. Importantly, within our equal-weighted framework — where no single position exceeds 6.76% of total holdings — we mitigate drawdown risk that could arise from heightened volatility in any one large-cap constituent.
The trailing returns summary in the table above highlights the one, three, five and ten-year IRT returns vs. both benchmarks.
Summary
The AlphaGeo investment framework supporting the IRT portfolio is designed to be both opportunistic and resilient. We will continue to evolve this approach — broadening the scope of portfolio constituents while developing new products aligned with AlphaGeo’s core theme of geographic arbitrage. We encourage you to read and share our monthly GeoSense reports, and please feel free to reach out to the AlphaGeo leadership team with any questions or feedback. Thank you for your continued support.
To learn more, please reach out to info@alphageo.ai.
