The business of geography

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INVESTMENT

• Front-end due diligence
• Benchmark fund and asset performance
• Portfolio management and reporting

ACQUISITION

• Screen, rank and compare locations
• Target market analysis
• Location performance forecasts
• Multi-asset fund construction

CORPORATE

• Site selection and relocation
• Manage climate and concentration risk
• Market-specific entry strategies

CREDIT RISK

• Integrate climate risk into underwriting
• Stress-test loan portfolios
• Calculate exit liquidity

INSURANCE

• Quantify future climate financial impact
• Calibrate premiums based on resilience-adjusted risk
• Steer asset management towards climate-proof real estate and equities

OPERATIONS

• Forecast insurance, maintenance and utilities costs for DCF/NOI modeling
• Hold/sell disposition timelines
• Prioritize mitigation and adaptation investments

RESEARCH

• Risk and resilience feature analytics
• Financial impact forecasting
• Inter-disciplinary scenario modelling
• Custom data blending and modelling

ESG

• TCFD/TCND, IFRS S2 disclosures
• Compliance with physical risk scenario requirements

  • INVESTMENT

• Front-end due diligence
• Benchmark fund and asset performance
• Portfolio management and reporting

  • ACQUISITION

• Screen, rank and compare locations
• Target market analysisperformance
• Multi-asset fund construction

  • CORPORATE

• Site selection and relocation
• Manage climate and concentration risk
• Market-specific entry strategies

  • CREDIT RISK

• Integrate climate risk into underwriting
• Stress-test loan portfolios
• Calculate exit liquidity

  • INSURANCE

• Quantify future climate financial impact
• Calibrate premiums based on resilience-adjusted risk
• Steer asset management towards climate-proof real estate and equities

  • OPERATIONS

• Forecast insurance, maintenance and utilities costs for DCF/NOI modeling
• Hold/sell disposition timelines
• Prioritize mitigation and adaptation investments

  • RESEARCH

• Risk and resilience feature analytics
• Financial impact forecasting
• Inter-disciplinary scenario modelling

  • ESG

• TCFD/TCND, IFRS S2 disclosures
• Compliance with physical risk scenario requirements

USE CASES

Real Estate & Infrastructure

Real Estate Investment

Enhance valuation models and due diligence processes with rich climate, socioeconomic, fiscal and demographic data:
 
  • Measure the financial impact of climate volatility on asset valuation

  • Benchmark climate-adjusted performance across portfolio

  • Enhance site selection criteria for acquisitions

  • Steer capital towards resilient geographies promising capital appreciation

  • Optimize timing for buying/selling properties
  1.  

Real Estate Risk Management

Understand the financial impact of climate volatility with AI-powered analytics:
 

  • Screen high-risk investments for additional due diligence  

  • Inform mitigation strategies, including insurance and modified holding periods 

  • Stratify risk by geography, property type, and investment vehicle 

  • Disclose climate-related risks and opportunities 

  • Integrate climate-related scenario analysis on acute (event-driven) and chronic physical risks as outlined by SEC and ISSB IFRS S2 guidelines

Real Estate Development

AlphaGeo guides developers through climate volatility towards the most desirable locations for sustainable living. As climate volatility accelerates, our models identify locations that offer the greatest divergence between current and future valuations, generating arbitrage opportunities for land banking, residential as well as mixed-use developments and master plans.

For decades, the most stable dataset in any country has been the price of an acre of land. But due to climate change, COVID, interest rates, insurance premiums, demographics, industrial policy, and regulations, there is now enormous volatility in what was once predictable. Which places will win as America’s population relocates in search of affordability, jobs and climate resilience? AlphaGeo identifies the anti-fragile locations that will appreciate amidst climate volatility.
Identify arbitrage opportunities in climate-resilient locations through predictive modeling of land values
Target fast-growing cities for investment according to demographic shifts, infrastructure investment, quality of life metrics and more
Invest early in the next boomtowns based on migration patterns and our proprietary datasets
AlphaGeo is the first geospatial and Al-powered software that models hundreds of variables – from flood and fire to infrastructure investment and population shifts – to pinpoint the most promising locations for land banking and real estate development. Our predictive models rank every location in the country according to statistically significant indicators and forecast the future performance of land and real estate assets. No other toolkit gives clients the conviction to invest in the world’s most precious asset: resilient geography.
Land value appreciation
scenarios: baseline vs rapid
warming
10-year appreciation under
baseline scenario
10-year appreciation under
RCP 8.5 scenario
Top 20 zip codes with strong
historical growth
48.5% (4.03% р.а.)
19.3% (1.78% p.a.)
Top 20 zip codes with
climate resilience
42.3% (3.59% р.а.)
60.9% (4.87% p.a.)
Here’s how it works:
Users select from criteria in our Alpha Finder screening tool – variables such as income, unemployment rate, credit scores, tax rates, in-migration, infrastructure quality, groundwater availability, flood risk, greenfield corporate investment, life expectancy, crime rates and dozens more – and we generate a customized ranking and map of counties, zip codes and census tracks that best meet that mandate. You can even weight the criteria and input your own in-house datasets to enhance the results. We continuously update the data from public and private sources and add more features for you to choose from.
The AlphaGeo platform provides a rigorous underpinning for land banking, programmatic joint ventures, and other strategies oriented around absolute returns as well as income generation. Land acquired in a closed or rolling fund can be sold in intervals (e.g. 2-3 years, 4-5 years, 5-7 years, etc.) to real estate operating companies for master-planned developments, and energy and water utilities. The search for “climate havens” is triggering what will be a decades-long relocation of America’s demographic, infrastructural, and economic footprint. AlphaGeo guides you into a more resilient future.

Homebuyers

The long-term nature of infrastructure spending and management requires complex forecasting capabilities around economic demand, demographic shifts and climate risk:

  • Incorporate location risk and resilience profiles into asset maintenance planning

  • Forecast climate impact tipping points on locations to avoid stranded assets

  • Identify optimal locations for new investments in mobility and energy infrastructures

 

Financial & Insurance

Insurance and Reinsurance

Incorporate climate data into underwriting, calibrating premiums to match risk.

Climate risk models capture only first-order impact, not the effects of climate change in real-world contexts. AlphaGeo forecasts climate data with socioeconomic data and market variables to go beyond the first-order effects of physical climate hazards:

  • Assess loan-to-value ratio and PMI / MIP calculations

  • Calibrate insurance premiums

  • Strategize capital allocation

  • Incorporate your data and models

  • Segment policies by time horizon, property type, RCP scenarios

  • Minimize exposure to ‘climate sub-prime’ lenders

  • Hedge against asset and liability mismatch

  • Stress-test portfolios against extreme climate thresholds 

Lenders

Whether you are required by regulation to measure climate risk, internally mandated to invest in sustainability, or looking to leverage data as a strategic edge, incorporating climate analytics will make you a more successful lender.

Liquidity
Anticipate liquidity events triggered by more frequent and severe extreme weather as well as soaring property insurance costs

Counterparty Risk
Understand the climate exposure of your borrowing base to inform better credit decisions

Credit
Forecast the location impact of climate change under multiple scenarios to enhance underwriting

Refinance & Extension Opportunities
Leverage climate risk and resilience as a signal for quality when evaluating future loan opportunities

Geographic Concentration
Create heat maps of climate risk exposure and inform underwriting of mitigation and adaptation measures

Disclosure & Regulation
Develop climate scenario analysis as recommended by the U.S. Federal Reserve and report physical risks in alignment with TCFD & TNFD requirements

Government & Public Sector

City

Develop and prioritize policy responses against specific climate risks and societal vulnerabilities:

  • Design optimal climate adaptation strategies

  • Strategically allocate resilience grants

  • Conduct scenario-based exercises to prepare for disruptions

  • Reform urban and rural land-use policies

  • Identify relocation sites for public and private use

Sovereign and Multilateral

Adapt societies and economies toward sustainable resilience by guiding governments and international organizations:

  • Climate Policy: Climate impact modeling, scenario analysis and policy advisory to support mitigation and adaptation policies

  • Adaptation Finance: Connecting opportunity-oriented capital to bankable projects

  • Green Finance: Data, tools, and analytics for regulation and product development (e.g. green bonds)

  • Resilience Certification: Nation-branding and place-making around climate-resilient geographies to promote sustainable tourism

  • Circular Economy: Development and investment strategies for a diversified, climate-resilient and more self-sufficient economy

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The business of geography

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