Africa at Risk

The intersection of climate change and mass migration has already become one of the defining megatrends of the 21^st century – with all indications that it will accelerate further. This StoryMap represents a collaboration between TO.org and AlphaGeo to anticipate the drivers and pathways, origins and destinations, of migration in Africa in the coming decades based on climate and demographic projections. We hope this data visualization will inform and compel relevant authorities to commit greater resources to climate adaptation and the fostering of sustainable habitats across Africa.

Africa

Africa is the world's second largest continent with a population of 1.2 billion – potentially reaching 2 billion by 2050. Where might Africans be forced to relocate as climate volatility accelerates?

Not yet beyond borders

Africa is home to 54 nations, the most of any continent. Many are incrementally allowing free movement of people towards a continent-wide free trade and mobility area.

Achieving the African Dream requires more mobility

While wealthier nations have widespread road networks, overall Africa lacks high quality primary and secondary roads as well as sufficient rail networks to enable the efficient mobility of people and goods.

A continent of megacities (2024-2050)

Africa is home to numerous megacities from Cairo to Johannesburg. Across the central and sub-Saharan regions, a belt of cities – Lagos, Kinshasa, Luanda, Khartoum, Nairobi – are both major origin and destination cities for migration.

Heat Risk

Temperatures are rising rapidly across Africa, with some locations already 4 degrees Celsius hotter than the pre-industrial baseline. Heat stress wiped out an estimated 4% of Africa's GDP in 2022.

Drought Risk

Africa's already severe droughts are being exacerbated by climate change, with the sub-Saharan and Horn regions recently suffering the most acute impact on agriculture and livelihoods.

Migration as adaptation

The confluence of climate stress, population growth, and economic hardship will generate continuous waves of mass relocation across the continent to "oasis zones," depicted in purple on this map.